We hear a lot of talk about stoping the war and peace as if that is the end of the story. That is just the end of the chapter. What happens next as a consequence of bad peace could be worse than the war Ukraine currently is facing.
Answer from Chat GPT: "If Russia were to achieve its objectives in Ukraine, the potential threat could extend to other countries, particularly those with historical ties to the former Soviet Union or strategic significance to Russia. The following countries might feel the greatest risk:
- Moldova (especially Transnistria): Russia already has a military presence in Transnistria, a breakaway region of Moldova. Moldova’s lack of NATO membership and its geographic proximity make it a vulnerable target.
- The Baltic States (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania): These NATO members are at high risk due to their strategic location and large Russian-speaking populations. However, an attack on them would trigger NATO’s Article 5, potentially escalating into a broader conflict.
- Poland: As a strong NATO member, Poland might be targeted indirectly through hybrid warfare, disinformation campaigns, or border destabilization, especially if Russia seeks to create a land corridor to the Kaliningrad exclave.
- Georgia: Russia already occupies parts of Georgia (Abkhazia and South Ossetia) since the 2008 war. A victory in Ukraine could embolden Russia to fully integrate these regions or exert more pressure on the Georgian government.
- Kazakhstan and Central Asia: Although not part of NATO, Kazakhstan’s large Russian-speaking population in the north and strategic resources could make it a target for increased Russian influence or direct intervention.
- Finland and Sweden: Russia has historically viewed Finland’s neutrality as beneficial, but Finland’s recent NATO membership has increased tensions. While direct invasion is unlikely, cyber attacks and hybrid threats could rise.
